With the conclusion of the Major League Baseball season, the free agent market is now in full swing. Among the top-tier pitchers available is Nathan Eovaldi, a right-hander who has established himself as one of the most reliable arms in the game.
Eovaldi’s 2022 campaign was a tale of two halves. In the first half, he was dominant, posting a 2.79 ERA and striking out 11.5 batters per nine innings. However, his performance declined after the All-Star break, with his ERA rising to 4.61 in the second half. Despite the unevenness, Eovaldi finished the season with a respectable 3.87 ERA and 208 strikeouts in 182.1 innings pitched.
A closer examination reveals that Eovaldi’s struggles in the second half were primarily due to a decrease in his fastball velocity and an increase in his home run rate. His average fastball velocity dropped from 98.2 mph in the first half to 97.4 mph in the second half. Additionally, he allowed 23 home runs in the second half, compared to just 10 in the first half.
Adding complexity to Eovaldi’s free agent profile is his injury history. In 2021, he underwent Tommy John surgery, a major procedure that typically requires a significant recovery time. While Eovaldi has returned from the surgery successfully, teams may be wary of his durability, especially given his heavy workload in recent seasons.
On the other hand, Eovaldi has a proven track record of success in the postseason. In 2021, he was a key contributor to the Boston Red Sox World Series victory, posting a 2.21 ERA and striking out 34 batters in 24.1 innings pitched. His ability to perform under pressure is a valuable asset that could increase his appeal to playoff contenders.
The free agent market for pitchers this year is competitive, with several other top-tier arms available. Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and Shohei Ohtani are among the most coveted targets, which could potentially drive down Eovaldi’s price tag.
Several teams are rumored to be interested in Eovaldi, including the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Texas Rangers. The Red Sox are familiar with Eovaldi and may be willing to offer him a multi-year deal. The Dodgers have a history of signing high-profile free agents and could view Eovaldi as a valuable addition to their rotation. The Rangers are in rebuilding mode and may be willing to overpay for a pitcher of Eovaldi’s caliber.
Based on his performance, injury history, and the current market landscape, it is difficult to predict exactly what Nathan Eovaldi’s free agent contract will look like. However, it is likely that he will receive a multi-year deal with an average annual value in the $20-25 million range.
Eovaldi is a talented pitcher with a proven track record of success, but his injury history and recent decline in performance add some uncertainty to his free agent profile. Teams will need to carefully weigh his strengths and weaknesses when making a decision on whether or not to sign him.
The free agent market for pitchers is always fluid, and it is possible that Eovaldi’s contract could be impacted by the signings of other top-tier arms. Nonetheless, he remains one of the most sought-after free agents on the market, and his destination will be closely monitored by fans and analysts alike.
