Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025: Above-Normal Activity Expected
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is reaching its peak months, and NOAA’s latest forecast indicates that conditions continue to favor an above-normal season. On August 7, federal forecasters released their final planned outlook for the season, predicting a higher-than-average number of storms.
Expected Storm Activity in 2025
This year, forecasters expect 13 to 18 named storms, with winds of 39 mph or higher. Among these, 5 to 9 are projected to develop into hurricanes, defined as storms with winds of 74 mph or higher. Furthermore, 2 to 5 of these hurricanes could reach major categories (Category 3, 4, or 5), characterized by winds exceeding 111 mph. It’s important to note that this forecast includes four tropical storms that have already formed: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter.
Typically, an Atlantic hurricane season sees about 14 named storms, with 7 becoming hurricanes. These averages are based on records from 1991 to 2020. The predictions released in August reflect a slight decrease from the initial May forecast but still emphasize an above-normal season.
Factors Influencing the 2025 Hurricane Season
A combination of climate factors contributes to the expected above-normal activity. Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea play a significant role. Additionally, an active West African monsoon has been promoting the formation of African easterly waves, which can develop into tropical storms and hurricanes.
ENSO-neutral conditions are also expected to prevail throughout the season, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña events will influence storm activity. This neutral state can allow other regional climate factors to drive hurricane formation.
Matt Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster, stated that many of the pre-season factors remain in play, aligning closely with earlier predictions made in May.
Other Forecasts and Predictions
Leading forecasters agree on an active 2025 hurricane season. Colorado State University’s team, led by Phil Klotzbach, predicted 16 named storms, with 8 expected to reach hurricane strength. Similarly, AccuWeather’s March forecast projected 13 to 18 named storms, of which 7 to 10 could become hurricanes. The record for the most named storms in a single season stands at 30, set in 2020.
Preparing for Hurricane Danger
Preparation is key to safety during hurricane season. NOAA emphasizes that the best time to prepare is before any storm threatens your area. “As we enter the second half of the season, this updated outlook serves as a call to action to prepare now,” said acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm.
Understanding your home’s vulnerability to storm surges, flooding, and high winds is crucial. Creating a checklist of preparatory actions, such as securing your property and having a go-bag ready, can make a significant difference. It’s also advisable to stay informed and have a plan in place in case of an evacuation.
Conclusion: Staying Prepared for the 2025 Hurricane Season
In conclusion, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be more active than average, with several climate factors contributing to the higher likelihood of storms. While the exact number of storms and their intensity may vary, the consistent message across forecasts is clear: preparation is essential.
By understanding these factors and taking proactive measures, residents in hurricane-prone areas can reduce their risk and stay safe. The time to prepare is now, ensuring that when a storm does approach, you and your loved ones are ready.
